Monday, October 24, 2011

Overview

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Credicorp Securities Headlines: Why China is helping the EU

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With much of the world overstretched by debt, western eyes are looking eastward to China to keep the battered system afloat. Here is why China might want to help:
The Communist People’s Republic of China is second only to the United States in economic power. But the US has financial problems that leave it hamstrung, and the EU is paddling for all it is worth to keep its single euro currency above water.
China has shored up the euro zone lately, appearing as a saviour, red carpet visitors saying: “We’ll buy your debt.” Beijing kept the ravenous markets from driving the euro boat onto the rocks. Europe buys a great portion of China’s exports. Conventional thinking is it hardly wants the euro zone to sink.
On the contrary, China has invested deeply in it. China has the pockets for that. Its GDP is in the realm of six trillion dollars (or roughly 4.4 trillion euros). Its growth is now around 10 percent per year. In the past three decades its share of global exports has shot from one to 10 percent. And 28 percent of China’s exports ship to Europe.
It has some $2,800 billion in foreign exchange reserves. It can afford infusions of 5.6 billion euros worth for struggling Spain and five billion for Portugal. By some estimates, China holds seven percent of the European debt. Its contracts in Europe over a six-month period are tagged at 47 billion euros.
Pragmatic is how the Chinese are seen. The Red Giant and Old Europe are privileged trade partners. Neither side seems interested in letting their friends down. It would harm business.
The trade exchanges and investment have political and diplomatic spin-offs, too. Beijing would appreciate support for its market economy status bid with the World Trade Organisation, officially aiming for 2016 to nail that down. If it got it earlier, it would eliminate costly tariff payments.
China may be rich, but its own risks at home include high inflation and local government debts. These exceed one quarter of the country’s total output, and some of the debts have gone sour.
Seeking stability, to keep its own businesses thriving and to feed and house people with low incomes, pundits say that no matter what the rest of the world wants, China will act conservatively.
China’s euro sensitivity
China’s National Day traditionally launches a period of celebration of past glories and present-day achievements. Will things be different this year? euronews asked Dr Robert Laurence Kuhn, author of ‘How China’s Leaders Think’, and our regular commentator on Chinese affairs.
Nial O’Reilly, euronews:
Dr Kuhn, with new concerns over the economy, inflation and debt worries, there seems less for the leadership to celebrate this year.
Dr Robert Laurence Kuhn:
We are within one year of the 18th party congress and this run-up period is a very sensitive time, particularly because there will be a generational change of leadership immediately following that congress. So this is a very sensitive time in China, when you have this transition of leadership;and it’s not just the most senior leader, it’s the entire cohort of leadership of the country that is changing. But diplomatically 2011 has been a much better year than 2010, which was quite a disastrous year on the diplomatic front. Inflation however, it the really critical point. China is going to be more worried about controlling inflation – and there are questions even about the quality of the numbers that they have, what’s the real inflation rate? What are people feeling? This is of primary concern. That’s why the cooling of the economy is not so bad in China, because the leadership is more concerned about inflation.
euronews:
China, as you’ve mentioned, is concerned with things further afield and it’s been a big supporter of the EU during the current debt crisis, but it’s recently signalled it wants Europe to recognise it as a market economy. Is it payback time? Can we expect some hard bargaining at next month’s China EU trade summit?
Kuhn:
I think China wants to be appreciated. What’s happening Europe is critical for China. China’s doing that (helping Europe) for it’s own good and it would like to have the world recognise that it’s economy has been very successful. Maybe it can’t solve all the problems of the world; and sometimes the rest of the world exaggerates the impact of China, be it positive or negative, in terms of what it can do. But indeed, in terms of world growth – if you look at the growth rate in China,even if it slows to 9 percent – is of enormous benefit if you compare it to what’s happening in the United States and Europe.
euronews:
It does have difficulties with Europe, but there’s also more evidence of China’s complex relationship with the US. In the coming days the Senate will vote on legislation to crack down on what the Americans see as China’s unfair currency practices. Will Beijing retaliate?
Kuhn:
What I fear is taking retaliatory or aggressive action about China in a coming election year will be the only thing the Republicans and the Democrats can agree upon. That would not be a wise decision in my opinion but it would be good politics, people may think in Washington. If that occurs – and I hope it does not – China will retaliate, but it will do so in this signalling way that they want to rachet down any permanent damage or any immediate impact of an escalation. They have to retaliate they can’t face their own people without some sort of a response, but it will not be a major response.

Credicorp Securities Headlines: Eurozone problems could blight world economy: British PM David Cameron

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MANCHESTER: British Prime Minister David Cameron said Sunday that the eurozone had to get on with fixing its financial problems or risk pulling down the entire world economy.
Speaking in Manchester, northwest England, before the start of his governing Conservative Party’s annual conference, Cameron said eurozone leaders must “roll up their sleeves” as they only had weeks to get it right.
“Frankly, right now the eurozone is a threat not just to itself, but also a threat to the British economy, but a threat to the worldwide economy and so we have to deal with this,” he told BBC television.
He added now was not the time for a British referendum on whether to stay in or leave the 27-member European Union — a subject which may be debated in the next session of parliament.
“Clearly there is a real problem in the eurozone and we’ve got to deal with that problem,” Cameron said.
“The British government has a very clear view, a view that we are pushing with partners in Europe, with the International Monetary Fund, with others about what needs to be done,” he said.
“Strengthening the financial mechanisms in Europe, greater involvement for the IMF, facing up to the debts and the problems and dealing with them decisively: This is what needs to happen.”
Cameron, who is staunchly against joining the euro currency, said it would be “very bad” for Britain if the eurozone broke up, given that 40 percent of British exports went to those 17 countries.
However, “Action needs to be taken in the coming weeks to strengthen Europe’s banks, to build the defences that the eurozone has, to deal with the problem of debt decisively.
“They’ve got to do that now, they’ve got to get ahead of the markets now.”
He said he suspected the eurozone might go down the path of much closer economic coordination in the future.
Holding a referendum on EU membership is likely to come up for a one-day debate in parliament before year-end, after a petition on a government website reached the required 100,000 signatures.
The Commons Business Committee is likely to set a date soon.
Its chairwoman Natascha Engel told The Mail on Sunday newspaper: “Given the crisis in the eurozone, this issue has become more relevant than ever.
“The EU today is completely different from the one the British people voted to join in 1975. It is time to examine the position again.”
However, Cameron said he would not support such a referendum.
“It’s not our view that there should be an in/out referendum. I don’t want Britain to leave the EU,” he said.
“What most people want in this country is not actually to leave the EU, but to reform the EU and make sure that the balance of powers between a country like Britain and Europe is better.”

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Credi Corp Securities Stock market Watch and Blog News websites CrediCorp Securities Zurich Commodities Watch

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(AP)  LONDON — Taxing financial trades has been touted as a panacea for all kinds of global ills, a cash source to fight poverty and global warming. But the latest European attempt to introduce a worldwide standard 40 years after it was first conceived is facing stiff opposition from the U.S. and Britain.
Jose Manuel Barroso, the president of the EU’s executive arm, on Wednesday threw his weight behind the tax that his office estimated could raise euro57 billion ($77 billion) a year in Europe to help combat a debt crisis that is threatening the euro currency.
“In the last three years, member states have granted aid and provided guarantees of euro4.6 trillion to the financial sector,” Barroso said. “It is time for the financial sector to make a contribution back to society.”
The tax would be a tiny percentage of the value of a trade in assets like stocks and bonds. Although some countries already have a minimal duty on share trading, the new proposal would not only increase the scope and size of the tax but also siphon off some revenue to Brussels.
The European Commission has formally backed the tax to take effect from January 2014.
As a result of the financial crisis in 2008 and the ensuing recession, debt levels across Europe, and not just in the bailed out countries of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, have risen sharply. Across the 27-nation EU, debt as a percentage of national income has spiked from below 60 percent in 2007 to 80 percent this year.
Though the tax could dent growth and employment, it has won a fair degree of support across the 17-country eurozone, including France and Germany, the EU’s two biggest economies.
Britain, however, has been adamantly against it unless it is used on a global basis. Its opinion carries weight in the debate because London is the continent’s biggest financial center.
The argument made by the likes of George Osborne, Britain’s finance chief, and echoed last week by his counterpart in the U.S. Timothy Geithner is that the tax just won’t work if it’s not introduced globally. If it’s not, investors can move money quickly to where the tax doesn’t need to be paid, saving themselves potentially large sums of money in financial trades.
Howard Wheeldon, a senior strategist at BGC Partners, said it’s a bad idea to have a trades tax now, especially since many banks are still trying to meet new requirements to beef up capital buffers.
“The timing is inappropriate; it’s something to look at in a few years time,” Wheeldon said.
Even if Britain and the U.S. decide to opt out, it is possible that the eurozone countries, or at least some of them, may go it alone.
“I think the eurozone or number of member states would go ahead and do it, and would start it at a low enough level to answer political objections,” said Sony Kapoor, managing director of Re-Define, an economic think tank.
Some activists campaigning for the tax worry the money may be used solely to fix the world’s financial difficulties. They say a large chunk of the revenues should be used for other important issues, such as reducing poverty or fighting global warming.
Oxfam International, a long-time proponent of the tax, lauded the European Commission’s support ahead of the October 17-18 summit of EU leaders and the Group of 20 meeting of the leaders from the top industrial and developing nations.

Credi Corp Securities Investment Headlines: Worrisome economic reports trigger big stock sell-off

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A batch of disappointing economic reports is leading some investors to worry that what appeared to be a short-term slowdown could turn into a longer-lasting downturn.
Signs of slowing growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector and in private-sector employment prompted the biggest one-day sell-off in the U.S. stock market since August, taking the Dow Jones industrial average down 279.65 points, or 2.2%.
Many investors had attributed disappointing economic data in recent weeks to short-term disturbances such as the rise in oil prices early in the year and disruptions caused by the Japanese earthquake.
“The stock market has been discounting a lot of bad data as just temporary,” said Jim O’Sullivan, chief economist at MF Global in New York. “The numbers today raised the credibility of the possibility that there’s more going on than just a temporary slowdown.”
Combined with a report Tuesday pointing to a fresh low in U.S. home prices, Wednesday’s numbers raised fears of a slowdown in consumer spending, which accounts for most of the country’s economic output.
“The economy is going to continue to stumble through the second half of the year,” said Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA.
Wall Street’s losses Wednesday erased gains recorded in the preceding four trading days.
The Dow, which closed at 12,290.14, has fallen 4.1% since reaching a three-year high in April. But the blue-chip index is still up 6% this year. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index, which lost 2.3% on Wednesday, remains up 4.5% year to date after dropping 3.6% from its April peak.
Some economists contend that even if stocks continue to fall in the short term, the pieces are in place for the economy to keep growing.
“It strikes me that what’s going on around the world is just normal fluctuations in data rather than something more worrisome,” said Neal Soss, chief economist at Credit Suisse.